《商务决策的数量方法 英文版 第4版》

Chapter 0 A refresher in basic mathematics1

1 Self-check tests2

2 Basic arithmetic10

3 Use of powers14

4 Basic algebra16

5 Graphs and more algebra18

6 Use of calculators25

7 Answers to recheck tests30

Part 1 Quantitatlv? Information37

Chapter 1 Data collection43

1.1 Population44

1.2 Sources of data46

1.3 Secondary data46

1.4 Primary data collection48

1.5 Asking questions54

1.6 Non-response to surveys61

1.7 Some alternative methods62

1.8 Market research63

1.9 Types of data64

1.10 Conclusions65

1．11 Problems67

Chapter 2 Presentation of data70

2.1 Tabulation of data71

2.2 Visual presentation75

2.3 Graphical representation85

2.4 Conclusions91

2.5 Problems91

Part 1 Conclusions97

Part 2 Descriptive statisties99

3.1 The mean,median and mode101

Chapter 3 Measures of location101

3.2 Other measures of location112

3.3 Conclusions115

3.4 Problems116

Chapter 4 Measures of dispersion120

4.1 The standard devlation120

4.2 Other measures of dispersion126

4.3 Relative measures of dispersion130

4.4 Variability in sample data131

4.5 Conclusions134

4.6 Problems134

4.7 Appendix139

Chapter 5 Index numbers140

5.1 The interpretation of an index number140

5.2 The construction of index numbers146

5.3 The weighting of index numbers151

5.4 The General Index of Retail Prices153

5.5 Conclusions155

5.6 Problems156

Part 2 Conclusions160

Part 3 Measuring uncertainty161

Chapter 6 Probability163

6.1 Basic concepts164

6.2 Definitions166

6.3 Basic relationships in probability168

6.4 Probability trees172

6.5 Expected values173

6.6 Decision trees175

6.7 BayesTheorem176

6.8 Markov Chains178

6.9 Conclusions181

6.10 Problems182

Chapter 7 Discrete probability distributions189

7.1 Uniform distribution190

7.2 Binomial distribution191

7.3 Poisson distribution197

7.4 Poisson approximation to the Binomial199

7.5 Conclusions199

7.6 Problems200

Chapter 8 The Normal distribution203

8.1 Characteristics of the Normal distribution203

8.2 The standard Normal distribution204

8.3 Normal approximation to the Binomial208

8.4 Normal approximation to the Poisson210

8.5 Combinations of varlables211

8.6 Central Limit Theorem213

8.7 Conclusions217

8.8 Problems217

Part 3 Conclusions221

Part 4 Statistical inference223

Chapter 9 Confidence intervals227

9.1 Statistical inference228

9.2 Inference on the population mean229

9.3 Inference on the population percentage237

9.4 The difference between independent samples240

9.5 The finite population correction factor243

9.6 The t-distribution245

9.7 Confidence interval for the median-large sample approximation249

9.9 Problems251

9.8 Conclusions251

Chapter 10 Significance testing257

10.1 Significance testing using confidence intervals258

10.2 Hypothesis testing for single samples259

10.3 One-sided significance tests265

10.4 Types of error270

10.5 Hypothesis testing with two samples273

10.6 Hypothesis testing with small samples276

10.7 Conclusions281

10.8 Problems282

Chapter 11 Non-parametric tests286

11.1 Chi-squared tests287

11.2 Mann-Whitney U test301

11.3 Wilcoxon test304

11.4 Runs test307

11.5 Conclusions308

11.6 Problems309

Part 4 Conclusions316

Part 5 Relating variables and predicting outcomes317

Chapter 12 Time series319

12.1 Time series models321

12.2 The trend324

12.3 The seasonal factors333

12.4 The cyclical factors338

12.5 The residual or random factor339

12.6 Predictions340

12.7 Exponentially weighted moving averages343

12.8 Summary and conclusions345

12.9 Problems347

Chapter 13 Correlation352

13.1 Scatter diagrams353

13.2 Cause and effect relationships355

13.3 Measuring linear association358

13.4 The coefficient of determination362

13.5 Measuring non-linear association364

13.6 Testing the significance of the correlation367

13.7 Conclusions370

13.8 Problems370

13.9 Derivation of the correlation coefficient376

13.10 Algebraic link between Spearman s and Pearson s coefficients376

Chapter 14 Regression378

14.1 Linear regression379

14.2 The graph of the regression line381

14.3 Predictions from the regression line382

14.4 Another regression line387

14.5 Interpretation388

14.6 Non-linear relationships389

14.7 Conclusions390

14.8 Problems390

14.9 Appendix394

Chapter 15 Multiple regression and correlation397

15.1 The basic two-variable model398

15.2 The effects of adding variables401

15.3 Assumptions and econometric problems404

15.4 Analysis of a multiple regression model409

15.5 Using multiple regression models413

15.6 Conclusions414

15.7 Problems414

Part 5 Conclusions420

Part 6 Modelling423

Chapter 16 The time value of money425

16.1 Interest:simple and compound426

16.2 Depreciation429

16.3 Present value431

16.4 The internal rate of return434

16.5 Incremental payments438

16.6 Annual percentage rate(APR)441

16.7 Conclusions442

16.8 Problems444

16.9 Appendix446

Chapter 17 Linear programming448

17.1 Definition of a feasible area449

17.2 The solution of a linear programming problem450

17.3 Special cases456

17.4 The value of resources459

17.5 Computer-based solutions461

17.7 Problems467

17.6 Conclusions467

Chapter 18 Networks473

18.1 Notation and construction474

18.2 The critical path477

18.3 Measures of float479

18.4 Gantt charts and managing resources481

18.5 Project time reduction482

18.6 Uncertainty486

18.7 Conclusions487

18.8 Problems487

Chapter 19 Modelling stock control and queues493

19.1 Introduction to the economic order quantity model493

19.2 Quantity discounts498

19.3 Non-zero lead time499

19.4 Introduction to modelling queues502

19.5 A model for a single queue503

19.6 Queues - modelling cost505

19.7 Modelling multi-channel queues507

19.8 Conclusions509

19.9 Problems510

19.10 Appendix - proof of EBQ511

Chapter 20 Simulation513

20.1 An introduction to simulation models514

20.2 Developing a simple simulation model515

20.3 Random event generation516

20.4 The construction of a simulation model520

20.5 Conclusions521

20.6 Problems521

Part 6 Conclusions523

Part 7 Mathematical background525

Chapter 21 Mathematical relationships527

21.1 Introduction to algebra528

21.2 Powers531

21.3 Arithmetic and geometric progressions532

21.4 Functions536

21.5 Conclusions551

21.6 Problems551

21.7 Proof of AP554

21.8 Proof of GP554

21.9 Proof of quadratic formula555

Chapter 22 Matrices556

22.1 What is a matrix?557

22.2 Matrix manipulation557

22.3 Solutions of simultaneous equations566

22.4 Leontief input-output analysis570

22.5 Conclusions573

22.6 Problems574

Chapter 23 Use of calculus577

23.1 Differentiation577

23.2 Economic applicationsⅠ584

23.3 Turning points587

23.4 Economic applicationsⅡ590

23.5 Further notes591

23.6 Integration594

23.7 Economic summary597

23.8 Functions of more than one variable597

23.9 Maximization and minimization subject to constraints601

23.10 Conclusions603

23.11 Problems604

Part 7 Conclusions609

Typical examination questions611

Appendices618

A Cumulative Binomial probabilities618

B Cumulative Poisson probabilities619

C Areas in the right-hand tail of the Normal distribution620

D Student s t critical points622

E χ2 critical values624

F Present value factors626

G Mann-Whitney test statistic628

H Wilcoxon test statistic631

I Runs test632

J Durbin-Watson statistic634

K Random number table636

L Loading MICROSTATS638

Answers to selected problems640

Index661