《Table 5:Future TFR Estimates》

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《中国人口老龄化趋势的经济社会影响及公共政策应对》

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Table 5 summarizes the results of China’s TFR estimate.Due to the low fertility rate，China’s newborn population is estimated to continue to decrease （see Figure 3）.Before 2023，China’s newborn population is expected to exceed 12 million each year.By 2024，the year when China’s population is expected to peak，China’s newborn population will decrease to less than 12 million.By 2030，2035，2040 and2050，China’s newborn population will decrease to 10.16 million，9.95 million，10.13 million and 8.73million，respectively.By 2050，China’s newborn population will shrink by over 1/3 from the level before2023.Except for 2022 and 2034-2041，China’s newborn population will experience negative growthin all the rest years.In 2040 and 2050，China’s newborn population is expected to experience negative growth rates of-0.057%and-0.025%，respectively.