《CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN THE 1992 ELECTIONS》

Part 1. The 1992 Presidential Election Contest1

1. The Nomination Struggle15

Who Ran18

The Rules19

The Campaigns26

The Conventions41

2. The General Election Campaign45

The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices46

From Labor Day to the Debates51

The Debates: Nine Days of Drama56

To the Finish Line61

Did the Campaign Matter?64

3. The Election Results67

The Perot Vote and the Election Rules70

The Pattern of Results77

State-by-State Results80

Electoral Change in the Postwar South87

Was There a Republican Electoral Vote Advantage?88

Part 2. Voting Behavior in the 1992 Presidential Election93

4. Who Voted?97

Turnout From 1828 Through 191697

Turnout From 1920 Through 1992100

Turnout Among Social Groups104

Why has Turnout Declined?114

Why Turnout Increased in 1992120

Did Increased Turnout Matter?123

Does Low Turnout Matter?128

5. Social Forces and the Vote131

How Social Groups Voted in 1992132

How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years143

Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down158

6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote163

Attitudes Towards the Candidates165

Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations170

The Concerns of the Electorate173

Issue Positions and Perceptions175

Issue Voting Criteria179

Apparent Issue Voting in 1992183

The Issue Preferences of Perot Voters192

Conclusions193

7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice195

What Is Retrospective Voting?196

Evaluations of Governmental Performance199

Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent203

Other Retrospective Evaluations207

Evaluations of the Incumbent210

The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations212

The Retrospective Evaluations of Perot Voters216

Conclusion219

8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote221

Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote221

Party Identification: An Alternative View222

Party Identification in the Electorate224

Party Identification and the Vote230

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations232

The Perot Candidacy244

Conclusion247

Part 3. The 1992 Congressional Election251

9. Candidates and Outcomes255

Election Outcomes in 1992255

Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes270

The 1992 Elections: The Impact on Congress280

The 1994 Elections and Beyond285

10.The Congressional Electorate297

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote297

Issues and the Congressional Vote301

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote302

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote303

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum306

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote308

Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited311

Conclusion313

Part 4. The 1992 Elections in Perspective315

11.The 1992 Elections and the Future of American Politics319

Prospects for the Democrats322

Prospects for the Republicans324

Prospects for a New Political Party325

Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility328

Notes331

Suggested Readings377

Index385