《CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN THE 1984 ELECTIONS REVISED EDITION》求取 ⇩

Part IThe 1984 Presidential Election Contest1

I The Nomination Struggle13

The Republicans13

The Democrats14

The Rules17

Surviving21

The Mondale-Hart Race24

Jesse Jackson's Candidacy39

Choosing the Running Mate42

The Lessons of the 1984 Nomination Campaign43

2 The General Election Campaign49

Candidates' Perceptions and Strategy Choices50

From the Conventions to the First Debate52

The Presidential Debates: The Rise and Demise of Walter Mondale57

The End Game: How Big a Victory?60

Did the Campaign Matter?61

3 The Election Results67

The Pattern of Results70

State-by-State Results75

Conclusion85

Part IIVoting Behavior in the 1984 Presidentiial Election91

4 Who Voted99

Turnout between 1824 and 191699

Turnout between 1920 and 1984102

Turnout among Social Groups107

Why Has Turnout Declined?114

Does Low Turnout Matter?119

5 Social Forces and the Vote133

How Social Groups Voted in 1984134

How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years142

Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down156

6 Issues, Candidates, and Voter Choice163

Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations164

The Concerns of the Electorate165

Issue Positions and Perceptions168

Issue Voting Criteria172

Apparent Issue Voting in 1984176

7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice187

What Is "Retrospective" Voting?187

Evaluations of Governmental Performance190

Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent193

Other Itetn,slwctive Evaluations197

Evaluations of the Incumbent198

The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations199

8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, Performance Evaluations, and the Vote207

Party Identification: The Standard View207

Party Identification: An Alternative View208

Party htentffication in the Electorate209

Party Identification and the Vote214

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations216

Conclusion225

Part IIIThe 1984 Congressional Election229

9 Candidates and Outcomes233

Election Outcomes in 1984234

Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes239

The 1984 Election: The Impact on Congress248

The 1986 Congressional Election and Beyond251

10 The Congressional Electorate263

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote263

Issues and the Congressional Vote264

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote267

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote269

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum270

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote273

Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited274

Conclusion276

Part IVThe 1984 Elections in Perspective279

II The 1984 Elections and the Future of American Politics281

Policy Consequences of the 1984 Elections283

Toward Realignment?286

Continued Republican Dominance287

A Resurgent Democratic Party292

A New Political Party295

Future Electoral Volatility299

Part V 1986 Election Update307

12 The 1986 Congressional Election311

The Pattern of Outcomes311

Assessing Victory and Explaining the Pattern314

Congressional Campaigns: National or Local?319

Parties, PACs, and Money in the Congressional Races325

The 1986 Election: The Impact on Congress330

13 1988 and Beyond335

Delegate Selection Changes336

1988 Presidential Candidates340

Waning Republican Prospects346

Conclusion354

Suggested Readings359

Index369