《PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY AND THE ECONOMY》

PROLOGUE1

1.POLITICAL SUPPORT FOR INCUMBENTS19

the Economy and Voting: The Early Works20

From Rainfall and the Populists to Business Curves and Congressional Voting20

From FDR and Farm Wages to Presidential Voting and Price Levels22

The 1950s and 1960s: Economists versus Sociologists23

Rrecent Econometric Analyses of Electoral Behavior27

Kramer's Rational Choice Formulation and Stigler's Response27

The Debate Intensifies: Arcelus and Meltzer versus Bloom and Price and Goodman and Kramer31

Congressional Voting33

The Economy and Incumbent Popularity: The Public Opinion Polls39

Support for American Presidents from FDR to Ford39

Public Support for Incumbents Outside the United States43

Group-Level Analyses50

The Economy and Microlevel Political Responses58

Fiorina's Retrospective Voting Model58

Microlevel Survey Data: The Linkage Between Collective Electoral Behavior and the Individual Voter61

The Sociotropic Voter Challenges thePocketbook Voter as the Concept of the Public Interest Reappears65

Conclusion72

Notes73

2THE ENIGMA OF PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY77

Major Controversies77

Levels of Analysis Problems77

The Role of Political Parties79

Perceptions of Policy Preferences80

Policy Preferences and Individual Interest: The Sociotropic and the Pocketbook Voter82

Interests: Individual, Group, or Collective83

Acquisition of Information83

Governmental Responsibility, Expectations,Perceptions, and Objective Economic Reality84

Conclusion86

A Framework for Analysis87

Economic Well-Being and the Responsibility for Domestic Economic Conditions88

Economic Perceptions and Expectations90

Partisan Ties and Economic Priorities92

After Popularity: The Vote and Macroeconomic Policies94

Conclusion95

Notes95

3FLUCTUATIONS IN PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY, 1965-1980105

Recent Trends in Presidential Popularity106

Recent Cycles in Presidential Popularity: Individual Presidencies, 1965-1980110

Johnson: Vietnam and the Vocally Disaffected111

Nixon: Watergate Turned Nostalgia to Relief119

Ford: The Pardon Ended the Honeymoon127

Carter: The Rally Effect Turned Sour134

The Highs and Lows of Popularity: Do They Reflect Random Cycles or Presidential Actions?134

Conclusion145

Notes146

4 UNDERSTANDING CHANGES IN PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY149

A Paradigm for Understanding Changes inPresidential Popularity149

Economic Variables: Macroeconomic and Redistributive Economic Policies149

Cyclical and Political Events153

Variables, Model Construction, and Data157

Variables and Data157

Model and Hypotheses159

Predictors of Presidential Popularity, 1965-1980162

The Importance of Party Affiliation163

The Peculiar Political Importance of Unemployment171

Economic Expectations and Unemployment Policies174

Are Economic Factors More Important Than Political Events?177

Cyclical Fluctuations and Political Influences179

Little Impact of Social Class180

General Conclusions181

Notes183

EPILOGUE: TOWARD AN INTEGRATED RATIONAL THEORY OF INCUMBENT SUPPORT187

Political Behavior: The Product of an Economic Calculus?The Result of Economic Causes?189

Economists versus Sociologists: Different Approaches to Understanding Behavior191

Repercussions of the Debate Within Political Science192

Politicoeconomic Models: The Need for An Integrated Rational Approach194

Politicoeconomic Models196

Expectations Models199

Expectations Models--Relation to the Classical Economic Model199

An Economic Ratiocination Model201

Notes204

BIBLIOGRAPHY209

APPENDIXES231

Appendix A. Empirical Data231

Appendix B. Yearly Economic Conditions, 1965-1980254

Appendix C. Political Events Affecting Presidential Popularity261

Appendix D. Tables Presenting Beta Coefficients for All Unemployment Groups, Analyzed278

ABOUT THE AUTHOR290