《CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN THE 1980 ELECTIONS》

I The 1980 Presidential Election Contest1

1.The Nomination Struggle11

The Nomination Process12

The First Phase: Who Runs for President16

The Second Phase: The Primary Campaigns19

The Third Phase: The Party Conventions29

Notes34

2.The Campaign35

The Opening Guns37

Reagan's Stumbling Start40

Carter "Gets Mean"41

The Pendulum Swings Again42

The "Great" Debate44

Approaching Judgment Day46

Notes48

3.The Election Results51

Were the Polls Wrong?54

The Results in Historical Perspective56

State by State Results59

Conclusion67

Notes69

IIVoting Behavior in the 1980 Presidential Election71

4. Who Voted77

Turnout Between 1920 and 198077

Turnout Among Social Groups79

Why Has Turnout Declined?84

Does Low Turnout Matter?88

Notes92

5.Social Forces and the Vote95

How Social Groups Voted in 198096

How Social Groups Voted During Postwar Years102

Party Identification: The Standard View159

Party Identification: An Alternative View160

Party Identification in the Electorate161

Party Identification and the Vote164

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations168

Tho Anderson Candidacy172

Notes184

III The 1980 Congressional Election187

9.Candidates and Outcomes191

Election Outcomes191

Candidates' Resources197

The 1980 Election: The Impact on Congress204

The 1982 Congressional Election207

Notes208

10.The Congressional Electorate211

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote211

Issues and the Congressional Vote213

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote216

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote218

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum218

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote221

Summary223

Notes224

Conclusion225

11.The 1980 Elections and the Future ot American Politics227

Policy Changes of the Reagan Administration227

A Pro-Republican Realignment231

A Resurgent Democratic Party234

A New Political Party237

Continued Electoral Volatility239

Notes240

Suggested Readings243

Index251