《CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN THE 1988 ELECTIONS》

Part 1. The 1988 Presidential Election Contest1

1. The Nomination Struggle11

Who Ran13

The Rules15

The Campaigns21

The Conventions and the Running Mates33

Lessons of the Nomination Campaigns36

2. The General Election Campaign41

Candidates' Perceptions and Strategic Choices42

From the Conventions to the Debates44

The Debates: Lost Opportunities for Dukakis47

The End Game: Dukakis Finds a Message50

Did the Campaign Matter?51

3. The Election Results57

The Pattern of Results60

State-by-State Results66

Conclusion76

Part 2. Voting Behavior in the 1988 Presidential Election81

4. Who Voted87

Turnout Between 1828 and 191687

Turnout Between 1920 and 198890

Turnout Among Social Groups95

Why Has Turnout Declined?102

Does Low Turnout Matter?108

5. Social Forces and the Vote121

How Social Groups Voted in 1988122

How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years131

Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down144

6. Issues, Candidates, and Voter Choice153

Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations154

The Concerns of the Electorate156

Issue Positions and Perceptions158

Issue Voting Criteria163

Apparent Issue Voting in 1988166

Conclusion173

7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice179

What Is "Retrospective" Voting?179

Evaluations of Governmental Performance183

Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent186

Other Retrospective Evaluations191

Evaluations of the Incumbent192

The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations193

8. Party Loyalties, Policy, Preferences, Performance Evaluations, and the Vote201

Party Identification: The Standard View201

Party Identification: An Alternative View202

Party Identification in the Electorate203

Party Identification and the Vote210

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations212

Conclusion221

Part 3. The 1988 Congressional Election227

9. Candidates and Outcomes231

Election Outcomes in 1988232

Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes238

The 1988 Election: The Impact of Congress247

The 1990 Congressional Election and Beyond249

10.The Congressional Electorate263

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote263

Issues and the Congressional Vote264

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote267

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote268

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum270

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote272

Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited275

Conclusion277

Part 4. The 1988 Elections in Perspective281

11.The 1988 Elections and the Future of American Politics283

Divided Government285

Continued Republican Dominance290

A Resurgent Democratic Party293

A New Political Party295

A Return to Electoral Volatility300

Suggested Readings305

Index311