《Table 1 Stochastic variables, their distribution and distribution parameters》

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《Risk measurement of international oil and gas projects based on the Value at Risk method》

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（1） Means of OOIP，Opex per barrel，Royalty rate，Cost recovery rate and Compensation rate is provided by the project owner.Other parameters of the distributions are with reference to Jakobsson et al.（2012）and Falconett and Nagasaka（2010），respectively

Suppose that the international oil project is a new project for the OG company，its life cycle is 11 years.1Given that international OG projects face resource risks and economic risks，oil originally in place（OOIP），variable Opex（Opex per barrel），and oil price are assumed to be stochastic variables.As for the policy risks，royalty rate，cost recovery rate，and compensation rate are selected as stochastic variables in the royalty contract，production share contract，and service contract，respectively，because these three variables are the core fiscal terms in the three fiscal systems.As for OOIP，with reference of Jakobsson et al.（2012），we assume it follows a lognormal distribution with a range between 0 and positive infinity.As for Opex per barrel，with reference of Falconett and Nagasaka（2010），we assume it follows a triangular distribution.As for royalty rate，cost recovery rate，and compensation rate，we assume they follow uniform distributions.As for oil price，we assume it is a Mean-Reverting Process.Stochastic variables and their assumptions are listed in Table 1.