《Tab.1 Forecast evaluation results based on quantile regression model(calibration period)》

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《基于分位点回归模型的洪水概率预报方法》

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Fig.2shows the results of the No.20120610observed flood series，the original model forecast series，and the prediction preferred value（Q50）series provided by the quantile regression model.It can be seen from the figure that compared with the forecasting results of the original model，the prediction preferred value results provided by the quantile regression model are closer to the actual observed series.This shows that the quantile regression model cannot only quantify the uncertainty of forecasting，but also correct the model forecast，so as to provide more accurate deterministic forecasting results.