《中国土地资源生产能力及人口承载量研究 概要》求取 ⇩

前言页1

Chapter 1. Purposes and Methodology3

Part One3

1．Purposes3

一、研究目的3

第一篇3

第一章 研究目的与方法3

2．Methodology4

二、研究方法4

一、空前庞大的人口基数是土地资源供应的危机所在13

1．The crisis of land resource deficiency resulted from unprecedented enormous population base13

Chapter 2. Analysis of Current Status13

第二章 当前的态势与分析13

二、我国土地资源的基本特点是：绝对数量大、人均数量少，山地多、平地少，草地面积较大、耕地与林地面积偏小，难利用土地多，后备耕地资源不足14

2．Basic characteristics of land resources in China:total amount is rich,per capita amount is poor;mountainous area is big,flat land area is small;grassland area is bigger,cultivated land and forest land is smaller;the area of land hardly u14

三、水资源总量尚可，人均亩均量少，供需组合不平衡；水利建设虽有较大发展，但可供水量仍不敷需求16

3．Total amount of water resources is rich,its per capita and per unit area land amount is poor,unbalance between supply and demand.Although water conservancy construction has been developed greatly ,water supply still can not meet demand16

四、明显不足的投入水平和缺乏动力的投入机制决定了土地资源的现实生产能力17

五、各项农产品处于勉强自给的状态，从而维持着温饱生活水平，这是当前土地资源生产能力与人口需求之间的基本格局17

5．Current basic pattern between land resources production capability and demand of people:every kind of agricultural products is barely self-supported enough,so a lower living level is maintained17

4．Actual low land resources production capability is caused by evidently insufficient input and the input mechanism which is lack of motive power17

6．Basic relations among population,resources and agricultural products:population is enormous,water and land resources are insufficient ,input level is very low ,so agricultural products are barely self-supported enough and a lower lving l18

六、人口-资源-农产品之间的基本关系：人口众多、水土资源相对不足、投入水平较低，使农产品勉强自给，仅仅维持着温饱生活水平18

1．Population continues to swell and form three heavy burdens,the way out for the straits lies in controlling population growth rate and enhancing the quality of people20

一、人口数量将持续增长，形成人口的三大高峰；出路在于控制人口增长速度，提高人口素质20

Chapter 3. Prediction and Analysis for Future20

第三章 对未来的预测与分析20

2．Water supply quantity is increased to some extent,which play an important part in raising land resources production capacity21

二、可供水资源有所增加，对提高土地资源生产能力起到重要作用21

3．Changing tendency of land resources amount:cultivated land area and grassland area are decreased and forest land area is increased;the quality of land resources in improved to some extent probably22

三、土地资源数量呈耕地、草地面积下降，有林地面积增加的变化趋势，土地资源质量可望有所改善22

四、耕地资源提高复种指数尚有较大潜力；农作物结构将形成三元结构的新格局24

4．There are many potentialities to raise the multiple cropping index in China;a three-element crop structure will be formed24

五、土地资源生产能力可望持续提高，但不同的投入水平使提高幅度不尽一致26

5．It is possible that land resources production capability is raised continuously,however-different input level result in different extent of the capability raised26

六、如果实现高投入水平、中方案人口数，我国2000年和2025年主要农产品可望基本自给和充分自给，人民生活水平将逐渐提高；29

6．If the high input level and the medium population programme is realized in China,it is possible that stable agricultural products will be basically self-supported in 2000s and fully supported in 2025s ,living level of people will be impr29

七、远景展望：我国粮食最大可能生产能力为8．3亿t，以人均500kg和550kg计，最大人口承载量为16．6亿和15.1亿，我国人口顶峰应力争控制在16亿左右34

7．Looking forward to foreseeable future:in China,the maximum rain gyield is 830 milliontons,and if per capita possession of grain is 500kg/yr or 550 kg/yr,the maximum population-supporting capacity is 1.66 billion or 1.51 billion;so ,the p34

8．Basic relation of population -resource-agro-products for future:population still grows and forms three peaks;cultivated land resource is still lack,water supply quantity is increased to some extent;on different input level,land resources35

八、人口-资源-农产品之间的基本关系：人口继续增长，形成三大高峰；耕地资源更加紧缺，可供水资源量有所增加35

第四章 对策37

Chapter 4. Countermeasures37

1．Expanding the scale of input effectively will be main driving power to raise land resources production capability;input stress should be put in where input benefit is better38

一、有效地扩大投入规模将是提高土地资源生产能力的主要驱动力，投入重点应放在投入效益较好的地区38

2．Holding back the momentum that cultivated land is decreased greatly,actively exploiting uncultivated land resources which is suitable to be cultivated,making great efforts to raise the multiple cropping index,stabilizing the total crops39

二、遏止耕地锐减势头，积极开发宜农荒地资源，努力提高复种指数，稳定作物总播种面积39

3．Enhancing the farming basic construction in which water conservancy construction is first important,greatly transforming the field with medium and low yield,improving the conditions of farming production41

三、加强以水利建设为中心的农业基本建设，大力改造中低产田，改善农业生产条件41

四、优化农业配置，逐步实现区域化商品化生产；以建设八大片国家级商品粮基地为基础，建立粮食区域供需平衡体系44

4．Selecting optimum disposition of agriculture,gradually realizing regionalization and commercialization of farming production,on the basis of building eight national bases of grain production for commerce,establishing the regional balance44

5．The construction of forestry should carry out three strategic transformation,comprehensively exploiting the resources in hilly region of the east of subtropical zone,building the strategic reserve base of general agriculture46

五、林业建设应实施三大战略转移，综合开发亚热带东部丘陵山地资源，建立大农业的战略后备基地46

六、大力加强饲草饲料生产，建立新兴的商品性畜产品生产基地，促进畜牧业发 展48

6．Greatly enhancing the production of forage grass and feed,building new bases of production for commercial animal products promoting the development of animal husbandry48

7．Depending on agricultural science and technology,laying stress on cost saving,developing the agriculture of resource saving50

七、 依靠农业科技，注重节省费用，发展资源节约型高效农业50

八、严格抑制人口增长，提高人口素质，正确引导消费趋向，强化适度消费机制52

8．Strictly controlling population growth,enhancing the quality of people,correctly leading the tendency of consumption,strengthening the mechanism of suitable consumption52

Part Two57

Chapter 1 Land resources and its development forecast57

第二篇57

第一章 土地资源及其发展趋势预测57

第二章 水资源供需预测及水土平衡分析60

Chapter 2 The forecast of water resources supply-demand and analysis of water-land resources balance60

第三章 作物结构的调整与配置63

Chapter 3Transformation and arrangement for crops structure63

Chapter 4 The balance between potential production of vegetative products in cultivated land and supply-demand66

第四章 耕地资源植物性产品的生产能力及其供需平衡66

第五章 土地资源动物性产品的生产能力及其供需平衡69

Chapter 5 The balance between potential production of animal products in land resources and supply-demand69

附：海水产品生产的现状及发展趋势71

Appendix Situation and development tendency of seawater production71

Chapter 6 Forest land resources and its products supply-demand analysis73

第六章 林地资源及其产品的供需分析73

Chapter 7 Ideal grain-production amount of cultivated land,the greatest potential productivity and population carrying capacity in China76

第七章 耕地资源粮食理想生产量、最大可能生产力与人口承载量76

Chapter 8 Nutrition balance analysis of land resources79

第八章 土地资源的养分平衡分析79

Chapter 9 The analysis and forecast of land resources agricultural input82

第九章 土地资源的农业投资分析与预测82

Chapter 10 Input-output analysis and forecast of land resources subsidery energy85

第十章 土地资源的辅助能量投入产出分析与预测85

第十一章 国家级商品粮生产基地的建设与布局87

Chapter 11 The construction and distribution of country s commodity grainproduction base87

Chapter 12 Balance analysis of grain production-requirment90

第十二章 粮食产需的区域平衡分析90

第十三章 未来人口预测与分析93

Chapter 13 The analysis and forecast of population in the future93

第十四章 食物消费水平的分析与预测96

Chapter 14 Analysis and forecast of food consumption level96

Chapter 15 Crops output variation rule and the future tendency99

第十五章 作物产量变化规律及未来趋势99

Chapter 1 Bdijing City105

Part Three105

第三篇105

第一章 北京市105

第二章 天津市107

Chapter 2 Tianjin City107

Chapter 3 Hebei Province109

第三章 河北省109

第四章 山西省111

Chapter 4 Shanxi Province111

第五章 内蒙古自治区114

Chapter 5 Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region114

Chapter 6 Liaoning Province116

第六章 辽宁省116

Chapter 7JiLin Province118

第七章 吉林省118

Chapter 8 Heilongjiang Province120

第八章 黑龙江省120

Chapter 9 Shanghai City122

第九章 上海市122

Chapter 10 Jiangsu Province124

第十章 江苏省124

第十一章 浙江省126

Chapter 11 Zhejiang Province126

Chapter 12 Anhui Province128

第十二章 安徽省128

第十三章 福建省130

Chapter 13 Fujian Province130

Chapter 14 Jiangxi Province132

第十四章 江西省132

Chapter 15 Shandong Province134

第十五章 山东省134

Chapter 16 Henan Province136

第十六章 河南省136

Chapter 17 Hubei Province138

第十七章 湖北省138

Chapter 18 Hunan Province140

第十八章 湖南省140

Chapter 19 Guangdong Province142

第十九章 广东省142

Chapter 20 Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region144

第二十章 广西壮族自治区144

Chapter 21 Sichuan Province146

第二十一章 四川省146

Chapter 22 Guizhou Province148

第二十二章 贵州省148

Chapter 23 Yunnan Province150

第二十三章 云南省150

Chapter 24 Tibet Autonomous Region152

第二十四章 西藏自治区152

Chapter 25 Shaanxi Province154

第二十五章 陕西省154

Chapter 26 Gansu Province156

第二十六章 甘肃省156

Chapter 27 Qinghai Province158

第二十七章 青海省158

Chapter 28 Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region160

第二十八章 宁夏回族自治区160

Chapter 29 Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region162

第二十九章 新疆维吾尔自治区162

The Land Resources Production Capability and Population-Supporting Capacity in China （Abstract）164

The Land Resources Production Capability and Population-Supporting Capacity in China （Abstract）164