《Table 1:Forecast of China’s Potential Economic Growth,2020-2035》

  提示：宽带有限、当前游客访问压缩模式

本系列图表出处文件名：随高清版一同展现

《中国经济增长与高质量发展：2020-2035》

1. 获取 高清版本忘记账户？点击这里登录

1. 下载图表忘记账户？点击这里登录

The HP filter method and the production function method both estimate China’s potential economic growth to be less than 4%over the period 2020-2035.This falls short of the 4.8%annual growth rate requirement.Compared with the production function method，the HP filter method estimated even lower results.The lower estimation is due to China’s slowing potential economic growth over recent years which would influence the estimated growth trend after the HP filter.However，the results of our estimation also suggest that if appropriate economic policies are enacted to further tap into China’s economic growth potentials，as shown in Table 1，China’s potential growth rate will still average above5%over the period 2020-2035 under the scenario of market-oriented reforms，thus achieving the target of doubling real GDP per capita.Achieving this goal requires a more in-depth understanding of how China’s economy may achieve a higher quality of development.