《国际债务、经济增长与政策选择》求取 ⇩

序＆谷书堂1

Abstract1

1 Introduction1

Preface＆Gu Shu-Tang1

1 导言1

内容提要1

2 发展中国家债务经济的过渡问题14

2 Issues Concerning Transition of LDC S Debt Economy14

2．1 关于LDC3债务经济能否顺利过渡的争论15

2．1．1 问题的由来15

2．1．1 Origin of controversy15

2．1 Controversy with regard to Transition of LDC s Debt Economy15

2．1．2 肯定的意见17

2．1．2 Positive opinions17

2．1．3 否定的意见18

2．1．3 Negative opinions18

2．1．4 简要评论21

2．1．4 A brief comment21

2．2 A Corrected Understanding of International Capital22

2．2 对国际资本的再认识22

2．2．1 Its main characteristics24

2．2．1 国际资本的主要特点24

2．2．2 变化了的国际资本性质26

2．2．2 Its changing nature26

2．2．3 Its historical role35

2．2．3 国际资本的历史作用35

2．3．1 The crux of debt crisis and its causes in the 1980s39

2．3 Comprehensive Analysis of LDC s Debt Crisis39

2．3．1 债务危机的实质和80年代债务危机的原因39

2．3 LDC3债务危机透视39

2．3．2 The role of debt crisis in stimulating policy reform46

2．3．2 债务危机促进政策转化的作用46

2．3．3 Debt crisis and internationally economic co-operation49

2．3．3 从债务危机看国际经济合作49

3 外债作用于经济增长的基本原理55

3 Fundamentals of External Debt s Acting on Economy Growth55

3．1．1 卡莱茨基经济增长模型55

3．1 政策困境与外债发生55

3．1．1 Kaleck s model of ectonomic development55

3．1 Policy Dilemma and Debt Occurrence55

3．1．2 LDC3政府面临的政策困境及解决办法58

3．1．2 The dilemma faced by LDC s governments and its way out58

3．1．3 结合外债的经济增长过程的一般意义60

3．1．3 The significance of growth-cum-debt process60

3．2．1 储蓄限制的增长—政策困境之一65

3．2．1 Saving-constraint grouwth: the first dilemma for policymakers65

3．2 积累与消费的矛盾及其克服65

3．2 Conflict between Accumlation and Consumption , and Its Overcoming65

3．2．2 The role of foreign debt in getting rid of thddilemma68

3．2．2 有助于政策走出困境的外债68

3．3 Conflict between Foreign Exchange Revenue and Payment , and Its Overcoming70

3．3．1 Foreign-exchange-constraint growth: the second dilemma for policymakers70

3．3 外汇收支的矛盾及其克服70

3．3．1 外汇限制的增长——政策困境之二70

3．3．2 打破上述政策困境的逆差战略72

3．3．2 The role of deficit strategy in getting rid of the dilemma72

3．4 Structuralist Gap Theory74

3．4 结构主义的缺口理论74

3．5 Dynamics and Cycle of Debt78

3．5 债务动态和债务周期78

3．5．1 债务动态的一般特点79

3．5．1 Dynamics of debt; its general characteristics79

3．5．2 债务周期84

3．5．2 The cycle of debt84

4 债务经济的实践与政府作用86

4 Practice of LDC s debt Economy and Governmental Role86

4．1 LDC3对缺口理论的实践87

4．1．1 80年代以前LDC3债务经济实绩87

4．1．1 Performance of LDC s debt economy before 1980 s87

4．1 LDC s PuttingGap Theory to Work87

4．1．2近10年来LDC3债务经济实况90

4．1．2 Performance of LDC s debt economy in the latest decade90

4．1．3 Misunderstanding of the gap-theory and serious involvement of international debt94

4．1．3 错误理解缺口理论和严重卷入国际债务94

4．2．1 阿根廷类型的债务经济政策100

4．2．1 Debt policy of Argentina100

4．2 Tow Different Kinds of Debt Policies100

4．2 债务经济政策比较100

4．2．2 Debt policy of S.Korea106

4．2．2 韩国类型的债务经济政策106

4．2．3 Criteria of a sound debt economy of LDC s112

4．2．3 LDC3健全债务经济政策的一般标准112

4．3．1 Effective control of financial deficit114

4．3 政府在债务经济中的作用114

4．3．1 有效控制财政赤字114

4．3 Governmental Role in Debt Economy114

4．3．2 Strict manipulation of the uses of debt fund119

4．3．2 严格把握债务资金的使用方向和使用效率119

4．3．3 Gradual expansion of public savings124

4．3．3 逐步扩大公共储蓄规模124

4．3．4 Positive development of forign trade127

4．3．4 积极发展对外贸易127

4．3．5 小结130

4．3．5 Summary130

5．1．1 80年代以前国际债务关系的沿革131

5 中国债务经济的发展131

5．1 1949——1979年的中国债务经济131

5．1．1 Evolution ofinternational debt relation in China before 1980 s131

5．1 China s Debt Economy from 1948 to 1979131

5 Development of China s Debt Economy131

5．1．2 Experiences and lessons135

5．1．2 经验和教训135

5．2 China s Debt Economy in 1990 s140

5．2 80年代的中国债务经济140

5．2．1 Development of international debt relation in 1980 s140

5．2．1 80年代对外债务关系发展的一般状况140

5．2．2 Some observable problems149

5．2．2 可观察到的一些问题149

5．2．3 External debt s inpact on economic growth and stability160

5．2．3 就外债运用对经济增长和稳定作用所做的估计160

5．2．4 80年代中国债务经济的主要特征165

5．2．4 Main characteristics of China s debt economy in the 1980 s165

6 China s Debt Strategy and Programme in 1990 s168

6．1 Theory of InternationalCreditworth iness168

6 90年代的中国债务战略与规划168

6．1 国际信用价值理论168

6．1．1 国际商业银行贷款政策的基本依据169

6．1．1 Basis for loaning Policy of International Commercial banks169

6．1．2 外债、进出口和经济增长的关系172

6．1．2 External debt,foreign trade and economic growth172

6．1．3 90年代中国的国际债务战略178

6．1．3 China s International debt Strategy in the 1990 s178

6．2．1 The MR=MC model in determining size of external debt184

6．2 Appropriate Scale of External Debt184

6．2．1 确定外债规模的MR=MC模型184

6．2 适度债务规模理论184

6．2．2 适度外债规模确定的实用办法189

6．2．2 Determining a moderate size of external debt: some empirical methods189

6．3 90年代的债务规划196

6．3 Debt Programme in 1990 s196

6．3．1 几个不确定因素197

6．3．1 Some uncertain factors197

6．3．2 90年代债务规模预测201

6．3．2 The siza of exteranl debt in the 1990 s : forecast201

7 Fiscal Policy in Perfect Debt Economy209

7 健全债务经济的财政政策209

7．1．1 对80年代中央财政收支变化的分析210

7．1．1 An analysis of the finacial situation of central government in the 1980 s210

7．1 变化中的财政政策210

7．1 Changeable Fiscal Policy210

7．1．2 实行公共赤字管理的一般意义和现实基础221

7．1．2 Management of public deficit: its significance and base221

7．2 Management of Public Deficit in Practising Discretional Fiscal Policy230

7．2 审慎财政政策中的公共赤字管理230

7．2．1 Management of public deficit: its main principles231

7．2．1 公共赤字管理的主要原则231

7．2．2公共赤字管理的中心任务240

7．2．2 Management of public deficit : its main task240

7．3 关于公共赤字维持能力的几个理论问题250

7．3 Issues about Keeping Public Deficit under Control250

7．3．1 Nature ofgovernments policy-making behavior251

7．3．1 政府决策行为的性质251

7．3．2 Growth , investment and payment of debt254

7．3．2 增长、 投资与偿债的统一254

7．3．3 Policy adjustment and stability259

7．3．3 政策的调整与稳定259

8 Transfer Policy in Debt Economy266

8 债务经济之资源转移政策266

8．1 Development and Trade Policies Aimed at Increasing Structural Superiority of Balance of Payment268

8．1旨在提高国际收支结构优势的发展与贸易政策268

8．1．1 发展政策、贸易政策与国际收支结构优势的国际比较269

8．1．1 Development policy, trade policy and structure of balance of payment : an international comparison269

8．1．2 An estimation of China s structure of balance of payment in the 1980 s279

8．1．2 对80年代我国国际收支结构优势的估计279

8．1．3 Necessary adjustment of development policy in the 1990 s287

8．1．3 90年代势在必行的发展政策调整287

8．2 Transter Policy in 1990 s298

8．2 90年代的资源转移政策298

8．2．1 Industrial and technological policies299

8．2．1 产业技术政策299

8．2．2 Foreign exchange policy, export promotion and import restriction304

8．2．2 汇率政策与鼓励出口、限制进口304

8．2．3 Transfer policy emphasizing debt management312

8．2．3 转移政策强调债务管理312

9 Concluding Remarks——On public administration in the process of debt economy319

9 结束语——论债务经济过程的公共行政管理319

(I) Bibliography in Chinese329

主要参考文献329

（I）中文论著329

(II) Bibliography In English334

（II）英文论著334

Postscript337

后记337