《STRATEGIC ASIA 2003-04 FRAGILITY AND CRISIS》

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Strategic Asia: Introduction1

Introduction: Fragility and Crisis3

Domestic sources of fragility and resilience5

International sources of fragility and resilience18

Transnational sources of fragility and resilience24

Strategic Asia: Country Studies31

United States: U.S. Leadership-Prevailing Strengths Amid Challenges33

Underlying U.S. strengths in post-Cold War Asia36

U.S. relations with Asian powers39

Challenges and preoccupations41

China: Sources of Stability in U.S.-China Security Relations53

The strategic goals of the Chinese Communist Party56

Improved atmospherics, cooperation in the war on terror, and tepid PRC opposition to the war in Iraq59

Taiwan: reasons for near-term optimism60

Non-proliferation: promise of future cooperation62

North Korea: from passivity to U.S.-PRC cooperation63

Addressing SARS: new thinking after the NPC?68

The challenges ahead71

Japan: Tilting Closer to Washington81

Bolstering the alliance84

Adjustments in Japan's defense strategy85

Coping with the "axis of evil"87

Relations with other powers94

Domestic factors and Japanese strategy100

Future prospects102

South Korea: Anchored or Adrift?109

Variable for change112

Variable for continuity117

U.S. rebalancing and realignment125

North Korea: The Korean Nuclear Crisis-On to the Next Level131

The crisis unfolds133

Motivations of the DPRK leadership142

The reactions of the other powers147

Alternative outcomes154

Another twenty years' crisis?158

Russia: Russia's Soft Balancing Act165

The realities behind Russian diplomacy166

Diplomatic scorecard: Putin plays coalition dynamics170

Managing pragmatic partnerships in Asia173

India: Regional Concerns, Global Ambitions181

The home front: domestic politics182

Economic progress: still slow but still steady187

Pakistan relations: crisis, miscalculation, and hope188

Looking west and east: foreign policy on the larger stage192

Implications for the United States196

Pakistan: A State Under Stress209

Domestic challenges: the threat from within210

Trouble on the western frontier: continued support for the Taliban211

The home front: political crisis, intolerance, and sectarian violence213

Insurgency in Kashmir: baleful impact on Pakistan215

The economy: improving but fragile216

Foreign relations: continuity and change218

The United States and Pakistan: building institutions and a long-term relationship219

Interests and issues: a healthy state and a stable region220

Indonesia: Turbulent Times-From Autocracy to Democracy229

Political, economic, and security challenges232

Violence, terrorism, and political tools236

The key of the armed forces239

Near-term prospects and impacts on U.S. Policy242

Strategic Asia: Regional Studies249

Northeast Asia: The Geopolitics of the Korean Nuclear Crisis251

Four parties seeking to shape U.S.-DPRK relations253

How far does multilateralism go?263

Southeast Asia: Wither Security Regionalism?269

ASEAN: has expansion led to the Peter Principle?272

The ARF: is the tail wagging the dog?275

Other forms of regional security cooperation279

Southeast Asia and a rising China: an economic embrace and political caution281

The increasing role of other extra-regional powers283

Central Asia: Defying "Great Game" Expectations291

The great powers' interests in Central Asia292

Great power actions in Central Asia295

The Central Asian states' responses307

Strategic Asia: Special Studies319

Terrorism: The War on Terrorism in Southeast Asia321

Al Qaeda comes to Southeast Asia323

Developing the network327

Origins of Jemaah Islamiyah331

Organizational structure333

The fall of Suharto and the jihad in the Malukus335

Jemaah Islamiyah becomes a terrorist orgianization337

The current state of Jemaah Islamiyah339

Fighting the war on terror: regional responses342

The limits of regional cooperation351

Proliferation: The Growing Challenge of Proliferation in Asia365

Supply-side and demand-side drivers367

Proliferation channels in Asia369

(In)efficacy of global, regional, and national responses383

Future proliferation challenges for Strategic Asia387

Economic Integration: Implications of Regional Economic Integration399

Current trends and recent initiatives401

Asian goals407

Prospects for success416

Strategic implication420

Implications for the United States: is integration compatible with U.S. interests?423

Economic Stability: Will Asia's Economies Fail or Return to Growth435

Government-business relations in Asia438

Industrial and financial policies in China441

The growth fundamentals445

The future447

Demographic Trends: Strategic Implications of Asian Demographic Trends453

The "population explosion"-yesterday's news455

Do shifts in relative size matter on the Asian strategic stage?459

Aging Asia: an uneven burden among countries461

Unfavorable mortality trends467

Imbalances in sex ratios at birth472

Strategic Asia: Indicators485

Strategic Asia by the Numbers487

Economies488

Globalization and trade490

Investment492

Population494

Energy496

Defense498

Conventional military forces500

Weapons of mass destruction502

Index507

About the Authors519

About NBR527