《THE POLITICS OF NUCLEAR BALANCE AMBIGUITY AND CONTINUITY IN STRATEGIC POLICIES》

Introduction1

1. Contemporary Dilemmas of Strategic Policy Management4

Viability and the Nature of "Strategic" Weaponry4

Strategic Weapons Regime Management as a Game of Strategy10

Constraints on the Political Process12

Strategic Policy Issues for the 1980s24

2. Strategic Doctrine as Problem and Solution35

Introduction35

The Elusive Concept of Deterrence36

Deterrence Theory and Strategic Doctrine41

The Evolution of Nuclear Strategic Doctrine43

A Plethora of Doctrines71

What Drives Doctrine?77

The Future of U.S. Strategic Doctrine: Trends and Scenarios80

3. Strategic Doctrine, Weapons Acquisition, and Arms Control: Politics and Process86

Introduction: Overview of a Political-Technological Process86

Influences of the Interactive Environment93

The Processes of Intelligence and Assessment103

The Roles of Technology107

Institutionalized Arms Control115

Other Influences on Strategic Program Decision Making118

Concluding Remarks120

4. Assessing the Strategic "Balance": Tools for Policy Analysis122

Introduction122

A Typology and Assessment of Strategic "Balance" Measures123

An Examination of Three Nuclear Exchange Models136

Using "Balance" Measures to Assess Strategic Weapons Programs146

5. ICBM Vulnerability and Its Solutions156

Introduction156

The Problem: Accuracy Implies Vulnerability-And Perhaps Instability157

Some Proposed Solutions to ICBM Vulnerability161

Assessing the Problem and Proposed Solutions: Measuring the Strategic "Balance" in the 1980s166

Evaluation of Theoretical Attack Scenarios170

Implications of Alternative Solutions to the ICBM Vulnerability Problem187

6. A Future for Arms Control? Structure, Indicators, and Prospects for the 1980s192

Introduction192

Structural and Systemic Constraints on Arms Control196

Post-World War II Arms Control Accomplishments204

Political Patterns in Arms Control Agreements210

Scenarios and Indicators for Arms Control in the 1980s214

Concluding Remarks: The Prospects for Arms Control225

References226

Glossary239

Index269