《Table 7 Natural gas consumption, production, and imports in China in 2030 (bcm)》

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《China's new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions》

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bcm=billion cubic meters Source:CHINAGEM baseline and policy simulations.

China’s natural gas imports are expected to expand to meet the continually increasing gas demand.Table 7 shows that natural gas imports are higher in both Scenarios 1 and2.By contrast，the changes considered in Scenario 3 lead to increased consumption of domestically produced gas at the expense of imports.The increasing demand for natural gas after combining all the scenarios together drives China’s gas imports up dramatically.Figure 13 shows that total gas demand in scenario 4 will be 606.7 billion cubic meters（bcm）in 2030，which is 29 per cent higher than that of the baseline scenario（469.8 bcm）.As discussed in Section 1，China’s gas imports consist of LNG and pipeline gas.Fig.14shows that LNG and pipeline gas imports will increase significantly in Scenario 4 compared with the baseline.As a result，China’s import dependency for natural gas would increase from 32.6 per cent to 38.1 per cent（Table 7）.