《RISK TAKING AND DECISIONMAKING FOREIGN MILITARY INTERVENTION DECISIONS》求取 ⇩

I. Introduction1

The Study of Risk and Foreign Military Intervention Decisions,1

Methodology,7

The Case Studies: Organization and Analysis,10

PART ONE THEORY15

2. The Anatomy of Risk: What is Risk and How Is It Framed?17

A Typology of Risks,18

The Definition of Risk,*19+++The Texture of Risk and the Taste for Risk,26

Generic Response Patterns,*29+++ The Nature of Political-Military Problems, 31

Problem Framing and Risk Estimation,33

The Communication of Risk,*4o+++Conclusions,41

3. The Formation of Risk Judgments and Risk Preferences: A Sociocognitive Approach43

Contextual Influences,44

Culture and Risk,60

The Decisionmaker: Cognition, Motivation, and Personality,66

The Decisionmaker: Heuristics and Biases,79

Risk.Taking Behavior in Small Groups: Causes and Processes,87

The Organizational Setting,105

Conclusions,109

4. Foreign Military Intervention: National Capabilities and Constraints113

A Conceptualization of Foreign Military Intervention,114

Military Capability,116

Economic Capability,124

Politic Capability, 125

Target-State Attributes,134

The Antinomies of Time and Policy Effectiveness,135

Capabilities: Illusions and Realities,138

Optimal and Actual Intervention, 139

Conclusions,141

5. The International Milieu and Foreign Military Intervention: When and How Much Does the Milieu Matter?143

Systemic Constraints and Imperatives for Intervention,144

Structural Attributes of International Systems,145

Nonstructural Attributes of International Systems, 150

Implications of the Systemic Analysis,157

The Response Modes of Third Parties, 158

The Salience of Relative Capability,163

Conclusions,167

PART TWO THE CASE STUDIES:A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS169

6 Foreign Military Interventions with Low to Moderate Risks: Grenada, Panama, and Czechoslovakia171

The Grenada Case: An Overview,172

U.S. Interests,174

National Capabilities,178

International Factors: Incentives,Constraints, and Justifications,186

The Evolution of an intuitive Decision,190

The Panama Case: An Overview,195

U.S. Interests,199

National Capabilities,205

The Marginal Role of International Factors,208

Explaining the Change in Preferences,210

The Modus Operandi of Risk-Averse Leaders,216

The Czechoslovakia Case: An Overview,217

Soviet Interests,223

National Capabilities,227

The Management of Conflicting International Incentives and Constraints,236

The Forging or a Consensus: The Risky Shift,244

Conclusions, 254

7. High-Risk Foreign Military Interventions: Vietnam and Lebanon259

The Vietnam Case: An Overview,260

U.S. Interests,268

National Capabilities, 271

The International Milieu: The Challenge of Uncertainty,293

Lyndon Johnson: A Reluctant Risk Taker,299

Social Influences and Policy Persistence,313

The Lebanon Case: An Overview,325

Israel's Interests,332

National Capabilities,335

The International Milieu: From Acquiescence to Acute Constraint,351

The Making of a Quagmire: The Key Decisionmakers,362

From Individual Risk-Taking Preferences to Government Policy,373

Conclusions,382

8. Conclusions and Implications387

The Sociocognitive Perspective,387

Formation of Risk Judgments and Risk Preferences,391

Foreign Military Intervention Decisions,399

Notes411

Bibliography453

Index511