《ECONOMIC GROWTH: PROSPECTS AND DETERMINANTS》

1. The Prospects for Productivity1

Productivity: Conceptual Snares3

Technical Progress6

The Great Productivity Slowdown7

Why Do Some Units Do Better?16

Notes21

Bibliography22

2. Economic Growth and Productivity in Canada, 1955-9027

Seven Ratios of Growth in an Open Economy28

Factors Underlying Changes in Output Per Worker38

Alternative Models of Long-Term Productivity Growth42

International Comparisons49

Summary and Implications51

Appendix53

Notes63

Bibliography64

3. Global Futures and Canadian Prospects: A Review of the Global Modelling Literature65

Introduction65

Some Methodological Issues71

Reviews of Selected Global Models76

Modelling as a School of Thought109

Conclusions119

Note124

Bibliography124

4. Savings in Canada: Retrospective and Prospective129

Savings and Investment in an Open Economy129

Patterns of Sectoral Saving since 1962132

Inflation-Adjusted Savings Flows142

Tax Incentives and Personal Saving156

Public Pensions and Private Saving166

A Look Ahead: Medium-Term Projections of Savings Rates172

Conclusion179

Appendix183

Notes188

Bibliography190

5. A Note on Demographic Projections for Canada: Review and Implementations193

Demographic Developments, 1921-81194

Population Projections, 1981-2030197

Impact of Demographic Change on Government Expenditures206

Some International Comparisons221

A Warning as to Uncertainties: Stone and Fletcher224

Conclusions225

Notes227

Bibliography227

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS229