《DATA FOR DECISIONS INFORMATION STRATEGIES FOR POLICYMAKERS》

Chapter 1: Overview1

Cause and Effect: How Does It Work?4

Measuring the Status Quo: What Is the State of the World?8

Prediction: What Will Happen?11

Reasons for Commissioning Special Studies13

Conclusion16

References16

PART I: CAUSE AND EFFECT17

Chapter 2: Experiments18

Historical Examples18

Features of the Comparative Experiment20

What the Comparative Experiment Is Not23

Strengthening Controlled Experiments24

Merits of the Experimental Method26

Social, Economic, and Medical Experimentation28

Weaknesses of Experiments35

Quality Checklist37

Policy Implications43

Conclusion44

References45

Further Reading46

Chapter 3: Special Considerations for Economic Experiments47

The Economist’s View of Experiments47

Micro-Experiments47

Macro-Experiments48

Production Experiments49

Reorganization Experiments50

Problems of Execution and Inference50

Conclusion54

References54

Chapter 4: Comparative Observational Studies55

Example: Preschool Program Evaluation55

Features of Observational Studies58

What the Observational Study Is Not66

Strengthening Observational Studies66

Merits of Observational Studies69

Weaknesses of Observational Studies69

Quality Checklist71

Policy Implications72

Conclusion73

References74

Further Reading74

PART II: MEASURING THE STATUS QUO77

Chapter 5: Sample Surveys78

Examples78

Features of the Sample Survey85

What the Sample Survey Is Not90

Strengthening Sample Surveys91

Merits of Sample Surveys99

Weaknesses of Sample Surveys100

Quality Checklist101

Policy Implications104

Conclusion105

References106

Further Reading106

Chapter 6: Longitudinal and Panel Studies107

Examples108

Merits of Longitudinal Studies110

Weaknesses of Longitudinal Studies111

Understanding Rare Events113

Refreshing and Adjusting Panels113

Pitfalls114

Policy Implications and Conclusion114

References116

Chapter 7: Case Studies117

Examples119

Features of the Case Study126

What the Case Study Is Not128

Strengthening Case Studies129

Merits and Weaknesses of Case Studies129

Quality Checklist137

Policy Implications144

Conclusion144

References145

Further Reading146

Chapter 8: Management Records147

Examples147

Features of a Management Records Study154

Management Information Systems154

Strengthening Management Records Studies155

Merits of Management Records Studies158

Weaknesses of Management Records Studies159

Quality Checklist161

Policy Implications163

Conclusion164

References164

Further Reading165

Chapter 9: Official Statistics166

Guides to Data167

Federal Statistical Agencies170

Additional Sources175

Interpretation175

The Information Industry177

Reference178

Further Reading178

Chapter 10: The Explosion in Computer-Assisted Library Searches179

How a Search Works180

Types of Data Bases182

Data Bases at One University183

Conclusion188

PART III: PREDICTING THE FUTURE191

Chapter 11: Simulation192

Examples192

Features of Simulation201

What Simulation Is Not204

Strengthening Simulation204

Merits of Simulation206

Weaknesses of Simulation207

Quality Checklist208

Policy Implications210

Conclusion212

References212

Further Reading212

Chapter 12: Forecasting214

Examples214

Features of Forecasts220

What Forecasting Is Not221

Strengthening Forecasts222

Merits of Forecasts226

Weaknesses of Forecasts229

Quality Checklist231

Policy Implications232

Conclusion234

References235

Further Reading235

Chapter 13: Mathematical Modeling236

Model of a Panel of Experts238

Model of the Learning Process242

Modeling Land Availability and Fertility in Brazil246

References250

Further Reading251

Chapter 14: Introspection and Advice252

Examples252

Features on Introspection and Advice255

What Introspection and Advice Are Not258

Strengthening Introspection and Advice259

Merits of Introspection and Advice266

Weaknesses of Introspection and Advice267

Quality Checklist268

Policy Implications269

Conclusion271

References271

Further Reading272

PART IV: SPECIAL ISSUES273

Chapter 15: Have Things Gone Away?274

Checking for Magnitude275

Smoothness277

Modeling278

Warning Signals279

Protection Against Hoaxes and Frauds281

References281

Further Reading282

Chapter 16: Privacy and Confidentiality283

Reference285

Further Reading286

Chapter 17: Summary of General Questions and Issues287

Reference292

Chapter 18: Strengthening the System293

The Role of the Public293

Commissioning Policy Research295

Supplying Information for Policy296

Using Policy Research296

What the Future Should Hold298

References299

Further Reading299

Index301