《THE NEW CONTRARIAN INVESTMENT STRATEGY》求取 ⇩

Part I: Current Investment Practice1

1. Investing in a World Turned Upside Down3

Chinese Ceramics, Postage Stamps, and Doom7

A Curious State9

The Professional Record11

Some Basic Questions16

A Common-Sense Rule16

2. Can You Read the Future?19

The Market's Hatfields and McCoys21

Sunspots and Waves23

Mr. Dow's Theory25

The World of Charting27

Reversal Formations28

Other Technical Measures31

The Technician's Moment of Truth33

The Computer Dreadnought34

3. Fundamental Analysis-The Slippery Rock39

The Intrinsic Value Theory40

The Bible of Wall Street43

Assessing Earning Power44

Other Valuation Techniques47

An American Dream48

Why Don't They Work?50

Market Timing-Myth or Reality52

A Purposeful Random Talk54

And Still More Tests!57

Part II: Understanding Your Psychological Odds61

4. The Strange World of Reality63

Dr. LeBon's Crowd65

The Mississippi Scheme67

What Is Social Reality?70

The Reality of 196274

The Compellingness of Crowd Opinion77

God Has Been Good to Solitron Devices79

The Gambling Mania84

Last Year's Bubble87

Not Very Different91

5. The Not-So-Expert Expert95

The Not-So-Expert Expert96

Configural Who?98

Security Analysis-A System Design for Anatoli Karpov?100

How Much Knowledge Do We Need?103

Drowing in Facts106

The Loser's Game108

6. Avoiding Bad Market Odds115

Mental Shortcusts116

The Short, Happy Life of the "Hot" Advisor117

A Variation on the Previous Problem119

Regression to the Mean121

The Input-Output Blues125

On Grizzly Bear Attacks and Stock Prices127

Decisional Biases and Market Fashions130

Shortcuts to Disaster132

Part III: A Workable Investment Strategy135

7. The Low Price/Earnings Ratio Investment Strategy: What Is It?137

The Quagmire of Visibility137

The World Turned Upside Down139

Slumbering Success143

Some Newer Work144

Buying Out-of-Favor Stocks150

8. Why Low P/E Strategies Work: The Failure of Forecasting Techniques153

Enter the Economic Forecaster154

Management Forecasts156

Analysts' Forecasts157

Et Tu, Earnings?162

The Altar of Visibility163

But Why?165

Investor Overreaction166

The Investor-Overreaction Hypothesis168

The Low P/E Investment Strategy173

9. How to Use Low P/E Investment Strategies175

Some Rules for the Low P/E Investor176

Should We Abandon Security Analysis Entirely?177

An Eclectic Approach178

An Overview of the Eclectic Approach200

Other Approaches Using the Low P/E Strategy201

When to Sell207

What the Low P/E Strategy Won't Do for You209

Alternatives to the Low P/E Philosophy209

10.Your Broker and the Faster Games in Town213

The Role of Your Broker214

The Discount Broker217

Investing in Junk Bonds220

Commodities221

Trading Stock Options229

Financial Futures Markets232

Tax Shelters234

Keogh Plans and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs)237

Bond Swaps238

11.How You Can Benefit from Innovative Financial Tools241

Money Market Funds242

Deep-Discount Bonds246

Zero-Coupon Bonds247

Variable Interest Bonds248

Some Other New "Perks"249

A More Exotic Touch251

Deferred Annuities251

Variable Annuities252

Municipals253

Beating Your Life Insurance Company255

Bank Certificates of Deposit-NOW Accounts et al.256

Certificates of Deposit257

All-Savers Certificates259

12.The Problems of the Investment Advisor261

What is Groupthink?262

Groupthink and Money Management263

The Use of an Investment Advisor270

13.Are Common Stocks a Good Investment Today?273

The Contemporary Price Environment274

The Phillips Curve277

Some New Causes281

Another Wild Card285

The Stress on Income Growth in Real Terms286

A Final Part of the Equation288

Investing Under Conditions of Accelerating Inflation290

Stocks, a Good Investment Today292

Inflation and Corporate Earnings and Dividends296

Doomsday Prophecies Are Premature299

Appendix I: The Performance of the Favorite Stocks of Groups of Professional Investors303

Appendix II: Steps in Your Financial Planning309

The Starting Point: Liquid Assets and Insurance309

Investing in Bonds313

References321

Index334