《NONPROLIFERATION OF U.S.FOREIGN POLICY》求取 ⇩

Introduction1

PART ONE: NORTHEAST ASIA5

1. The Region7

2. Japan9

Defense Problems and Policies10

The Civil Nuclear Energy Program15

The Space Program20

The Nuclear Ship Program24

Present Policies on Nuclear Questions25

Possible Future Policies on Nuclear Questions30

3. The Republic of Korea47

Civil Nuclear Energy47

Nuclear Weapons50

The Best of Both Worlds?64

4. Taiwan66

Civil Nuclear Energy66

Nuclear Weapons69

PART TWO: INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND IRAN85

5. Nuclear Energy: Policies and Plans85

Economic, Technological, and Developmental Incentives86

Present and Prospective Capabilities95

Official Policies on Proliferation105

6. Incentives for Nuclear Weapons116

India117

Pakistan124

Iran132

Domestic Determinants of Decision135

7. Nuclear Defense Options: Strategies, Costs, and Contingencies145

Deterrence Theory and New Frames of Reference145

Defense Alternatives and Opportunity Costs150

Prospective Nuclear Strategies159

PART THREE: THE MIDDLE EAST175

8. The Growing Nuclear "Overhang" in the Middle East177

9. Regional Instabilities182

The Arab-Israeli Conflict183

Relations among the Arabs191

Interactions with Peripheral Powers193

The Role of Other Outside Powers195

Internal Instabilities198

Implications of the Conventional Arms Rivalries200

10.Nuclear Potential and Possible Contingencies203

The Status of Announced Nuclear Plans206

The Economics of Nuclear Power in the Region209

Nuclear Desalting in the Middle East212

The Shortage of Trained People215

Prospects for an Arab Cooperative Nuclear Program217

Possible Third World Nuclear Suppliers220

NPT Status225

Objectives, Types, and Costs of Possible Nuclear Forces226

Nuclear-Relevant Delivery Capabilities231

Control of Arab Nuclear Forces232

Contingencies and Consequences234

PART FOUR: BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA239

11.Nuclear Choices for Friendly Rivals241

Nuclear Programs242

National Goals and Foreign Policy250

Energy Policy258

National Security Policy261

Nuclear Options for the Future270

Conclusions277

PART FIVE: SOUTH AFRICA281

12.A Diplomatic Bomb? South Africa's Nuclear Potential283

South African Nuclear Capabilities284

Strategic Incentives and Military Options290

Diplomatic Uses of the Nuclear Option296

The Test That Wasn't, the Test That May Have Been300

PART SIX: U.S. POLICY CHOICES307

13.Northeast Asia309

Japan309

The Republic of Korea313

The Republic of China314

The Near-Nuclear Problem318

Regional Problems320

The United States and Northeast Asia322

14.India, Pakistan, and Iran323

Controlling Access to Fissionable Material324

Controlling Fuel Supplies329

Diplomatic Solutions338

Offsetting Inducements345

Direct Involvement354

15.The Middle East366

Helping to Change the Rules on Access to Nuclear Explosives367

Helping to Promote Security in the Region372

Consideration of a Broader Strategy375

16.Brazil and Argentina: Strategies for American Diplomacy377

Policies of Denial385

Policies of Control386

U.S. Nuclear Cooperation390

U.S. Defense Policy391

Comparison with Other Near-Nuclear Countries395

17.Preventing the Development of South African Nuclear Weapons397

International Controls on South African Nuclear Activities398

Leverage through Nuclear Cooperation: Carrot, Stick, or Boomerang?401

Conclusions404

18.Influencing Incentives and Capabilities407

Measures to Reduce Incentives408

Measures to Limit Capabilities414

Problems of the 1980s and Beyond418

Index427