《URBAN DECLINE AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN CITIES》求取 ⇩

1. Introduction and Summary1

The Basic Nature and Extent of Urban Decline4

The Causes of Urban Decline8

Decline at the Neighborhood Level10

How Future Trends Will Affect City Decline and Growth11

Future Impacts of Higher Energy Costs on Urban Development12

A Case Study of Anti-Decline Policies: Cleveland13

Public Policies Concerning Urban Decline14

2. What Is Urban Decline?18

Social Functions and Differentiating Traits of Urban Areas19

Causal Relationships between Descriptive and Functional Decline22

3. How Extensive Is Urban Decline in the United States?28

The Extent of Decline in Descriptive Terms29

The Extent of Distress and Decline in Functional Terms42

Intrametropolitan Disparity as an Element of Distress and Decline61

Conclusions64

Appendix: Descriptions of Indexes Used in This Chapter65

4. Causes of Urban Decline68

Historic Trends and Their Influence68

Causes of Urban Decline in Individual Areas77

A Strategy for Empirical Testing78

5. Testing Theories of Urban Decline84

Decomposition of Total City Population Change84

Testing the Theories87

The Growth and Decline of SMSAs and Cities to Their SMSAs88

Review of Implications for Theories of Decline97

Conclusion107

Appendix A: Regression Estimates and Discussion of Estimating Techniques108

Appendix B: Derivation of Testable Hypotheses from Density Gradient Analyses123

Appendix C: The Role of Industry Mix in Metropolitan Employment Change126

6. Anatomy of City Decline and Growth, 1960-75132

Changes in City Population, 1970-75133

Changes in City Per Capita Income, 1970-75139

City Employment Growth, 1960-70149

Conclusion164

7. Neighborhood Change and Urban Decline165

How the American "Trickle-down" Process Copes with Rapid Population Growth165

What Happens When Metropolitan-Area Population Growth Slows to Stops174

Conclusion177

8. Forces Affecting the Future of Cities178

An Approach to the Future of Urban Areas178

Assessment190

Appendix: Trends Relevant to the Future of Urban Areas193

9. General Conclusions about the Future of Cities202

Dynamics of Urban Decline202

Self-Reinforcing Elements205

Self-Limiting Elements208

Is Decline Reversible?211

Neighborhood Decline and Revitalization212

Future Problems in Declining Cities213

Conclusions215

10.Energy Scarcity and Urban Development Patterns217

Adjustment Mechanisms218

High-Cost Scenario221

Severe-Shortage Scenario233

Conclusion236

11.Alternatives for One Declining Area: Cleveland, Ohio237

Recent Growth and Decline238

Future Trends: Base Case Projections240

Policy Impacts243

Results247

Conclusion253

Appendix A: Some Assumptions Underlying the Estimates of City-Suburban Cost Differentials254

Appendix B: Secondary Impacts257

12.Policies to Deter Urban Decline, Part One258

Why Public Policies Should Respond to Urban Decline258

Removing Policy Biases against Big Cities259

Regional Impacts of Policy Choices262

Adapting to Lower Populations and Resources265

Big-City Poverty, Diversity, and Local Government265

13.Policies to Deter Urban Decline, Part Two278

Directly Empowering Individuals and Households279

Achieving Effective Scale for Recommended Policies293

Conclusion295

Appendix: Variable Definitions and Sources297

Index305