《Table 5 Macroeconomic effect of the policy simulations in 2030 (cumulative deviation from the basel

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《China's new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions》

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Source:CHINAGEM simulation results.

The increase in capital（relative to baseline levels）requires an increase in investment.If consumption（C+G）and investment（I）increase by more than the real GDP（Y），the balance of trade（X-M）must deteriorate.The mechanism is the real appreciation of the Chinese RMB，which increases imports and reduces exports.Table 5 shows that imports will be 15 per cent higher and exports will be nearly 25 per cent lower than in the baseline scenario.For exports，we assume that China faces downwardsloping foreign demand curves for the majority of its exportable goods.Thus，the contraction in exports causes an improvement in the terms of trade（7.3 per cent higher）.