《WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2004》

1.The Context39

The Methodological Approach40

The Reference Scenario41

Government Policies and Measures41

Macroeconomic Factors 41

Population 43

Energy Prices 46

Technological Developments51

The World Alternative Policy Scenario52

Main Uncertainties53

2.Global Energy Trends 57

Energy Demand58

Primary Fuel Mix 58

Regional Trends64

Sectoral Trends66

Energy Production and Trade 69

Resource Availability and Production Prospects69

Outlook for International Trade71

Investment Outlook 72

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions74

Overview74

Regional Emission Trends76

Sectoral Emission Trends77

World Alternative Policy Scenario78

3.Oil Market Outlook 81

Oil Demand 82

Oil Reserves and Resources 87

Classifying and Measuring Resources87

Estimates of Proven Reserves 90

Turning Resources into Reserves93

Oil Production 105

Summary of Projections105

Conventional Oil Production Prospects by Region 106

Non-Conventional Oil Production Prospects 114

Inter-Regional Oil Trade 115

Investment Outlook119

Implications of High Oil Prices 122

Background and Assumptions122

Results123

4.Natural Gas Market Outlook129

Gas Demand130

Gas Supply135

Proven Reserves and Potential Resources135

Production Prospects136

Gas Trade140

Investment Outlook 144

Price Developments 145

North America146

Europe147

Asia-Pacific 147

Regional Trends148

North America 148

European Union153

OECD Asia156

OECD Oceania159

Transition Economies159

Developing Asia 161

Middle East163

Africa 165

Latin America166

5.Coal Market Outlook169

Coal Demand 170

Sectoral Demand171

Impact of Environmental Policy and Technology 172

Coal Reserves and Production 174

Proven Reserves174

Production Prospects175

Hard Coal Trade 176

Price Developments 179

Investment Outlook 181

Regional Trends 182

OECD North America 182

OECD Europe 182

OECD Pacific184

China185

India187

Africa188

Indonesia188

6 Electricity Market Outlook 191

Electricity Demand 192

Drivers of Electricity Demand192

Sectoral Growth 193

Power Generation 193

Choice of New Plant194

The Electricity-Generation Mix196

Technology Outlook204

Impact on Fuel Markets206

Capacity Requirements and Investment Outlook207

CO2 Emissions 211

Electricity Markets and the Status of Reforms 212

Regional Trends 216

United States and Canada 216

European Union 218

OECD Pacific 220

China220

India222

Brazil223

7 Renewable Energy Outlook 225

Renewable Energy Demand226

Renewables in Power Generation228

Cost Developments232

Outlook by Source234

Capacity and Investment Outlook238

Renewables in Industry and Buildings239

Biofuels240

8 Regional Outlooks243

OECD Regions and the EU 244

Overview244

OECD North America245

European Union 249

OECD Asia254

OECD Oceania 257

Developing Countries 259

Developing Asia 261

China263

India269

Indonesia 271

Latin America 273

Brazil274

Middle East278

Africa279

Transition Economies281

9 Russia – an In-Depth Study 283

Energy Market Overview 284

Macroeconomic Context 286

Energy Policy Developments 291

Energy Demand Outlook 294

Overview294

Sectoral Trends297

Oil Supply Outlook 300

Resources 301

Crude Oil Production303

Refining Capacity and Production 305

Export Prospects305

Industry Structure and the Role of the State 307

Gas Supply Outlook308

Resources and Production Trends308

Export Prospects 313

Market Reforms314

Coal Supply Outlook 315

Power and Heat Sector Outlook 317

Capacity Needs and Fuel Mix 317

Impact of Electricity Market Reforms 320

Implications of the Projections 323

Russia’s Role in the Global Energy Market323

Energy Investment Needs and Financing325

Environmental Impact 326

10.Energy and Development329

The Role of Energy in Development330

Energy and Economic Growth33

Energy and Human Development334

The IEA Energy Development Index 342

Prospects for Energy Development 346

EDI Projections to 2030346

Energy Development and the Millennium Goals350

Policy Implications 353

Appendix to Chapter 10: Electrification Tables357

11 World Alternative Policy Scenario 367

Background and Approach 368

Why an Alternative Scenario?368

Methodology 369

Key results372

Energy Demand 372

Implications for Energy Supply374

Carbon-Dioxide Emissions377

Investment Outlook380

Results by Region 384

OECD Regions and the EU 385

Non-OECD Countries389

Results by Sector 396

Power Generation 396

Transport401

Industry405

Residential and Services Sectors408

Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario411

Appendix to Chapter 11:Tables for World Alternative Policy Scenario Projections415

Annex A Tables for Reference Scenario Projections429

Annex B Energy Projections: Assessment and Comparison 519

Annex C World Energy Model 2004 531

Annex D The Precarious State of Energy Statistics 549

Annex E Definitions, Abbreviations and Acronyms553

Annex F References563