《ENERGY RISK ASSESSMENT》

1. INTRODUCTION1

A. Energy Use in Canada2

B. Organization3

C. Catastrophic and Noncatastrophic Risk4

D. Conventional and Nonconventional Energy Sources5

E. Time Period of Assumptions5

F. Efficiencies and Load Factors6

G. Centralization of Energy Sources6

H. Units7

2. METHODOLOGY9

A. Components of Risk9

B. Risk Calculation-Raw Materials, Components and Construction12

C. Risk Calculation-Transportation, Operation and Maintenance, Public Health, and Waste Disposition15

D. Types of Risk18

E. Lifetimes19

F. Combining Deaths, Accidents, and Disease19

G. Nongovernmental Energy Systems20

H. Storage and Back-up21

I. Emissions25

J. Data Limitations27

K. Other Energy Systems27

L. Risk per Unit Energy, Power, or Worker28

M. Differential Risk29

3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS31

A. Summary of Main Assumption31

B. Summary of Material Acquisition and Construction34

C. Proportions of Risk35

D. Nuclear Risk40

E. Conclusions42

a. Results42

b. Simplified Calculation for Solar Space Heating Risk49

APPNEDICES55

A. COAL55

i. Steam Cycle Plant55

ii. Emissions63

B. OIL64

C. NATURAL GAS70

D. NUCLEAR75

i. Public Risk from Accidents90

ii. "Worst Cases"92

iii. Three Mile Island93

iv. Waste Management95

v. Decommissioning97

E. SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRIC99

i. Material Acquisition and Construction99

ii. Emissions106

iii. Operation and Maintenance106

iv. Energy Back-up108

v. Energy Storage109

vi. Transportation110

vii. Other Considerations112

viii. Summary113

F. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC113

i. Material Acquisition and Construction116

ii. Emissions122

iii. Operation and Maintenance122

iv. Energy Back-up123

v. Energy Storage123

vi. Transportation127

vii. Other Considerations127

viii. Summary127

G. SOLAR SPACE AND WATER HEATING130

i. Material Acquisition and Construction131

ii. Emissions145

iii. Operation and Maintenance145

iv. Energy Back-up148

v. Energy Storage149

vi. Transportation149

vii. Small Storage Tanks149

viii. Energy for Pumps154

ix. Summary159

H. WIND159

i. Material Acquisition and Construction161

ii. Emissions168

iii. Operation and Maintenance168

iv. Energy Back-up170

v. Energy Storage171

vi. Transportation172

vii. Summary173

I. OCEAN THERMAL173

i. Material Acquisition and Construction176

ii. Emissions178

iii. Operation and Maintenance179

iv. Energy Back-up184

v. Energy Storage184

vi. Transportation184

vii. Summary184

J. METHANOL185

i. Material Acquisition and Construction186

ii. Emissions189

iii. Operation and Maintenance190

iv. Energy Back-up195

v. Energy Storage195

vi. Transportation195

vii. Electricity and Oil195

viii. Summary196

K. HYDROELECTRICITY196

i. Material Acquisition197

ii. Construction200

iii. Emissions201

iv. Operation and Maintenance201

v. Energy Back-up and Storage202

vi. Transportation202

vii. Dam Failures202

viii. Summary206

L. TRANSMISSION LINES206

i. Material Acquisition207

ii. Emissions211

iii. Operation and Maintenance211

iv. Transportation214

v. Summary214

M.MATERIAL AND LABOR STATISTICS218

i. Productivity218

ii. Risk Severity220

iii. Materials224

N.ENERGY BACK-UP SYSTEMS224

i. Weighted Back-up224

ii. Low-Risk Back-up225

O.MAN-DAYS LOST PER DEATH228

i. Sensitivity Analysis228

ii. Justification of Combining Deaths with Accidents and Disease231

P. TRANSPORTATION232

Q. COMMENTS ON AECB 1119236

NOTES AND REFERENCES361

SUBJECT INDEX389