《Table 1 Temperature rise in Central Asia based on different studies》

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《"Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years"》

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Note:GCMs，General Circulation Models；CRU，Climate Research Unit；AOGCMs，Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models；GISS，Goddard Institute for Space Studies；CFSR，Climate Forecast System Reanalysis；ERA-Interim，European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecas

In the past 100 years，the global climate system has undergone a significant change characterized by greenhouse gas emissions and global warming.According to the IPCC fifth assessment report，the global warming trend is still continuing，and the average temperature of the global surface has increased by 0.85°C（Stocker et al.，2013）.Central Asia is one of the largest arid and semi-arid areas in the world（Knorr et al.，2001；Xu et al.，2007；Gessner et al.，2013）.The natural ecosystems of Central Asia are very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change（Chen，2012；Yin et al.，2016）.Hu et al.（2014）analyzed the near-surface air temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 using observations from 81 meteorological stations.They found that the rise in air temperature in Central Asia occurred at a faster rate than that in surrounding areas or than the global average.The warming trend is noticeable，especially in the northern part of the region and during the cold season.The surface air temperature over Central Asia will rise between 3°C–7°C on average in the future.The largest increase in near-surface air temperature occurred in spring.According to the projected emission scenarios for the period of 2071–2100，the warming trend in summer is expected to increase（Ozturk et al.，2017）.Many climate models（Pollner et al.，2008；Lioubimtseva and Henebry，2009；Hu et al.，2014）have been used to project the temperature rise in the 21st century（Table 1）.Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia has occurred faster than the global average over the past 30 years.This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases，but also a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas（Sorg et al.，2012，Unger-Shayesteh et al.，2013）.