《Table 3 Threshold model regression results》

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《Benefit Analysis of Chemical Fertilizer Input for Staple Grain Production Based on Threshold Panel Data Model》

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Taking Y1as the dependent variable（model 1），we performed the threshold regression on japonica rice data；using Y1and Y2as dependent variables（model 2，model 3），respectively，we performed the threshold regression on wheat data，the results are shown in Table 3.From the significance of the coefficients，the simulation effects of the three models are not perfect.However，from the perspective of the overall degree of interpretation of the model and the significance of the threshold variable，the model gave a good explanation of the nonlinear relationship between chemical fertilizer input and grain output.Considering that there are more significant variables in model4 and the degree of explanation is not much different from that of model 3，so we selected model 1 and model 3 as the analysis objects.In model 1，the two threshold values are 16.709 9 and21.199 2.When the chemical fertilizer productivity is lower than the first threshold，the chemical fertilizer input elasticity is 0.26.When it is in the range of the two thresholds，the chemical fertilizer input elasticity is 0.29，which is greater than the second threshold，and the chemical fertilizer input elasticity is 0.31.It indicates that when the chemical fertilizer productivity rises from16.709 9 to 21.199 2，the grain output elasticity will increase by19%.In model 3，the two threshold values are 9.701 9 and16.693 4.When the chemical fertilizer productivity is lower than the first threshold，there is no data，so it is impossible to estimate.When it is in the range of the two thresholds，the chemical fertilizer input elasticity is 0.86，which is greater than the second threshold，and the chemical fertilizer input elasticity is 0.90.This also indicates that when the chemical fertilizer productivity rises from9.701 9 to 16.693 4，the output elasticity of the grain output will increase by 4.7%.